I have to admit that the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll has been driving me nuts lately. With everything that Dubya has done to the country and the world since 2001, how is it possible that John McCain is tied with my man, Barack Obama?
Some say McCain is not your typical Republican, and that may have been pretty accurate if we were watching replays of the 2000 campaign. In recent times, he has been anything but a maverick by getting friendly with the President. I actually think race is playing a lot bigger role than anyone would readily admit, but that is a whole other topic.
Regardless of why the poll is so close, the big question in front of us is whether or not the poll is accurate at all. With so many new voters registering and voting for the first time in this year’s Democratic primaries, it seems to me that all of the old algorithms and equations will not work this year.
As I have said before this election season, there is a much more accurate view of the intentions of the voters this November, and it’s a place where people put their money where their mouths are. I am talking about the Iowa Electronic Markets. Check out the current quotes for the Winner Take All market: $0.634 for the Democratic Party nominee and $0.376 for the Republican Party nominee. The voters/traders in this market are betting overwhelmingly that the Democratic nominee will win this November. As an Obama supporter, I certainly am excited by these results, and I hope they’re right.
I think it’s time for the mainstream media to keep an eye on these markets as they have in the past several presidential elections. There’s nothing quite like betting with real money that makes people be honest with themselves.